ByronPlanning to test your skills again as an NRL Fantasy coach in 2020?
If you answered ‘yes’, you’ve come to the right place.
The team at Outta Their League are here once again to lend a helping hand in your pre-season planning with the Ultimate NRL Fantasy Cash Cow Guide & our in-depth, preseason watchlist.
This resource is designed to give you the best possible chance of winning your head to head league and achieving your personal best year in the overall standings.
The below guide breaks down only the NRL Fantasy assets our team of veterans believe should come into the frame when making your initial selections.
We take a deep dive into the analytics that matter in order to uncover more than one gem to put you in good stead from the jump.
From the best cash cows to nailed on keepers, you’ll read about it all right here.
Make sure you keep checking back on this list as it will continually grow and be updated as we move closer to kick-off of Round 1.
If you prefer to consume your NRL Fantasy content in video format, check out the brand-new YouTube channel, here: bit.ly/subscribetoOTL
HLF
Nathan Cleary | $785,000
It’s no secret that Nathan Cleary is a premium asset in the game of NRL Fantasy.
As it stands, he holds the record for the highest score in NRL Fantasy with a monstrous 126 point haul against the Warriors in 2017, and he came close to breaking his own record against the Knights in the final game of the 2019 season with a 120-point masterclass.
With these numbers and his proven pedigree, you’d be be forgiven for assuming he was the most owned asset in his position. But in fact, he isn’t even in the top 3.
Interestingly, NRL Fantasy coaches preferred the likes of Ponga, Brown, Cherry-Evans, Munster and Johnson over the Panthers Halfback despite only DCE bettering Cleary’s output over the entire season.
But where things get really interesting for 2020, is when we take a look at the underlying stats when Cleary lined up without Maloney in the team.
In his last three starts as the primary playmaker, Cleary boasts an unmatched average of 78.6 points per game. With James Maloney now a Catalans Dragon, Cleary looks set to benefit in a big way.
Despite looking like he will be priced at a mid-fifties average after a fast finish to the year and a late tonne – we feel he will still be undervalued to start the year and he’s near enough a must have in our books.
WFB
Ryan Papenhuyzen | $600,000
We’ve only got a limited sample size to work from and many will argue that “second-year syndrome” is waiting in the wings, but we certainly seen enough positive signs from the young Storm fullback in 2019 to secure a spot in our back three in 2020.
Papenhuyzen’s frame may not be as formidable as the likes of alternate options in Trbojevic & Tuivasa-Sheck, but what he lacks in size he certainly makes up for through his willingness to get involved and his pure speed.
Across his 6 games in the run-on side, Papenhuyzen managed more than impressive numbers – boasting an average of 68.3 points per game! The former Australian Touch Football representative managed an average tackle bust tally of 7 per game, and his average run metres of 257 could not be bettered even by the likes of Tedesco & RTS.
Adding to this, Cameron Smith is confirmed to lace up the boots for a final season in 2020, and the young Fullback has the opportunity to again flourish under the veterans guidance and creativity from dummy half.
It’s for these reasons that I wouldn’t be surprised if Papenhuyzen matches the NRL Fantasy output of Dally M medalist, James Tedesco in 2020.
Outta Their League: NRL Fantasy Community
The only difference is that Papenhuyzen should start the year in the region of $200,000 less than Teddy due to his time spent coming off the interchange earlier in the year.
FRF
Andrew Fifita | $782,000
Another straightforward pick here for my third selection with proven NRL Fantasy gun, Andrew Fifita.
Fifita will start 2020 severely under-valued after a sharp decline in minutes whilst managing a knee injury that sparked a steep decline in value to the tune of $225,000.
Much like Cleary, Fifita looks set to benefit from the departure of an experienced teammate with Paul Gallen hanging up the boots on a decorated career with the Sharks.
In the three games Fifita took the field without his captain, the Tongan International managed an average of 61.3 points per game.
And whilst many believe Fifita’s effectiveness took a hit in 2019, the numbers suggest that the minutes were the only issue with the busy FRF managing to score over 60 points in 5 of the 6 games he played more than 55 minutes across the season.
With a history of being the out-and-out premium Fantasy asset in his position and one of the best points-per-minute statistic holders in the game, Fifita deserves his place on the Outta Their League NRL Fantasy watchlist.
2RF
David Fifita | $680,000
We first got a glimpse of what might be in store for David Fifita in 2019 during his electric display for the Indigenous All Stars side back in February.
Fifita come off the interchange in this game and put together one of the more eye-catching performances we’d see all year. In 39 short minutes, the (then) 18 year old prospect managed a try, a try assist, 132 metres, 4 tackle busts and an amazing 53 NRL Fantasy points.
Despite this incredible display of pure power, Siebold would have NRL Fantasy coaches wait until Round 19 until we’d see consecutive starts at 2RF for the full 80-minutes.
Across these 7 games to close out the year, the numbers are as good as we’ve seen in the position with an average output of 75 points. This includes a rare century in Round 23 against the Bunnies, only to be followed up with a 90 the week after as the Broncos took on the in-form Eels.
Fifita simply looks made for NRL Fantasy and very much deserved of the highest value in the position by season’s end ($823,000).
Whilst he’ll demand a considerable amount of your salary cap next year, this stretch of 7 games seen Fifita produce 13.3 more points per game than the next best in the position, Jason Taumalolo.
Given they will start the year at a similar price-point, we’ll be leaning toward Fifita from the jump given his ability to play 80 minutes and his proven upside.
HLF
Alexander Brimson | $462,000
One of only a few Fantasy relevant players at the Titans, AJ Brimson is approaching the 2020 season with the potential to be one of the better value picks at WFB or HLF, or solid cash cow that will provide handy returns early in the season.
Brimson’s 2019 campaign proved frustrating for the young prospect, as he failed to lock down a regular starting role behind the likes of Michael Gordon and Tyrone Roberts. These limited minutes seen his value plummet some $266,000 by seasons end, which was the 11th biggest drop in value across the competition.
In more positive news for Brimson and NRL Fantasy coaches, 2020 could be his year as he looks to enter as the first choice fullback for new coach, Justin Holbrook.
So, what can we expect from Brimson playing 80 minutes at Fullback?
Through injuries and rotation, Brimson did play the full 80 minutes at WFB on 8 occasions this year.
Across these games, the numbers are certainly encouraging.
Brimson managed an average of 171.3 run metres, 3.63 tackle busts and 42.75 Fantasy points across this stretch.
Given he ended 2019 priced at around a 30 point average, consistently hitting 40 or above could see him claw back $250,000 or more in 2020.
To put this into perspective, a rise of this nature would have placed him comfortably in the top 20 money makers of 2019.
Of course, there is always a risk associated with bringing in an outside back from a team like the Titans who only the Bulldogs managed less tries across the season.
But given the numbers and his tackle bust friendly game, we feel Brimson looks like a real moneymaker this year and a handy scoring option in the opening third of the season. Plan to start with Brimson and move him onto the likes of a proven keeper at HLF or WFB at the first opportunity.
2RF
Jack Williams | $472,000
Williams was a reliable campaigner for the Sharks in 2019 after making 23 appearances and adding plenty of energy and spark from the interchange.
This was Williams’ second season in the top team, and he’s one of a few options in line to replace Cronulla’s departing captain, Paul Gallen.
Early reports suggest the Cooma Colts junior is the front runner over the likes of some tough competition such as Newtown Jets’ Grand Final winning lock & captain, Billy Magoulias.
Adding to this, Williams passed the ‘eye ball test’ every time he took the field, and amassed an NRL Fantasy output of 32.4 points per game from an average of 37.82 minutes.
If Williams is selected to start at lock for the Sharks in 2020, we can expect he would take at least as many minutes as Gallen occupied in his final season, and hit 50 minutes or more consistently.
Based on his solid ‘points-per-minute’ statistic across the games where he played 40 minutes or more, this could see Williams improve his average to the low 40s and above, and see his price rise to somewhere in the range of $200,000 to $250,000.
It’s for this reason that we’ve got Jack Williams as one to pop on the watchlist for the first team list Tuesday.
HLF
Brodie Croft | $536,000
Croft finished his 2019 campaign very much in the middle of the road in the HLF standings with an average output of 38.7 points per game.
This included a non-injury affected low score of 27, and a season high score of 64 against the Dragons in Round 16.
Much like Cleary who we previewed in episode 1, Croft’s output sees a significant upswing when taking the field as the primary playmaker.
Evidence of this can be taken from Croft’s last 4 games starting at HLF for Melbourne with Cameron Munster unavailable for selection.
Across these games, Croft amassed an impressive average of 60 points per game and it’s these performances that have landed him on our watchlist ahead of his campaign with the Broncos next year.
Whilst we can’t assume that Croft would be able to carry this 60-point average across an entire season, scores in this region would see him placed amongst the elite in the position after starting the year with a ($250k +) discount based on his high 30s average in 2019.
Given many are tipping the Broncos to improve next year off the back of their forward pack, we can expect the Brisbane side to get themselves into more attacking opportunities for Croft to capitalise.
The only danger here comes via Anthony Milford. Milford was such a great option towards the end of 2019 after having both the run metres and tackle busts statistics expected from an attacking WFB, as well as generous kick metre numbers from doing the majority of the long kicking.
In order for Croft to reach his NRL Fantasy potential, we’ll need to see him take ownership of the long kicking game and consolidate a solid floor to provide the foundation for higher scores throughout the season.
WFB
Jamayne Isaako | $471,000
Isaako comes into 2020 as another player from the Broncos we’re expecting to significantly improve and provide a handy returns in both points and profit.
This is largely due to the impending positional switch from Wing to Fullback that looks set to bring Isaako closer to the action in good ball, and provide improvements in the run metre and tackle bust columns.
The highly publicised positional switch will be one that the NRL Fantasy community will welcome with open arms after an underwhelming 28.8 average in 2019.
And whilst we haven’t got a large sample size to work with in assessing the impact of Isaako moving to Fullback long-term, his last three starts at the back provide encouraging numbers.
Across these games, the New Zealand and Samoa representative averaged 42.3 points. Importantly, an average of 40 points or more in 2020 could see Isaako improve his price by over $150k over the season, and position him as the perfect springboard into a premium asset at WFB.
An average of 36.1 in 2018 from the wing (primarily) provides us with plenty of confidence that Isaako can push his average into the 40s, and become an astute acquisition for any NRL Fantasy coach from Round 1.
FRF/2RF
Ryan James | $578,000
This year was one that Gold Coast Titans enforcer, Ryan James will be looking to put behind him.
With just six starts for the year after a second ACL rupture and another unsuccessful campaign for his team, James will be looking to make up for lost time in 2020.
Not dissimilar to Croft and Isaako, James finished the year with an average score well below his potential, and will represent excellent value next year as a result. You’ve only got to look as far as his 2018 average of 52.5 to see that James has the potential to produce keeper-like numbers over the long term.
His under-performing club and horror injury run aside, the positives for James ahead of 2020 come via his average when playing up front.
Due to his big motor and uncommon ability to find the line, James’ boasts an average of 54 points per game when starting at FRF over the last two seasons , which should make for enticing reading for NRL Fantasy coaches.
If James can start at prop next year and remain injury free, our analysis tells us that he is another undervalued option worthy of his spot on the Outta Their League NRL Fantasy Watchlist.
2RF
Lachlan Fitzgibbon | $575,000
Lachlan Fitzgibbon finished the 2018 season a whisker outside of keeper territory with an average of 49.9 points over the season.
Even more impressive, this included an injury affected 8 points in Round 24 which ultimately cost him that coveted 50+ point season average.
With 9 tries across the season and impressive trial form throughout the following pre-season, the South Newcastle Lions junior was seemingly building into a nice option ahead of the 2019.
Instead, it was quite the opposite, and we’d see his price plummet some $277k off the back of overall inconsistent form, and his formerly plentiful attacking stats almost completely dissipate.
As you dive into the stats, it’s clear that Fitzgibbon is very much in the same mould as a Viliame Kikau whereby he does rely on tries, line breaks and tackle busts to push those big scores – but when players like this do it regularly enough, you’re normally safe to factor this into your expectations without any great risk. To say this for Fitzgibbon, we’d need to see plenty of positive change under new head coach, Adam O’Brien.
If you think a re-settled spine at Newcastle will be able to bring Fitzgibbon back into their attacking shape in 2020, and push his average back up to 48 or more points per game, he might be worth a roll of the dice as a cut-price 18th or 19th man (or simple cash grab!)
2RF
Angus Crichton | $695,000
You would of noticed that the title of this video is “fallen guns”, and there’s arguably none bigger than Sydney Roosters 2RF, Angus Crichton when you factor in the heights he achieved not too long ago.
Crichton’s actual NRL season was one of tremendous success after winning a premiership in his first year with a new club. What more could you want?
Well, as an NRL Fantasy coach, maybe there is a little more we could want; such as those 50+ scores we’d become accustomed to enjoying every week!
Unfortunately for frustrated NRL Fantasy coaches, Crichton wasn’t a nailed-on starter for the Roosters in 2019 with a total of 6 games from the interchange, and just 13 appearances where he put together an 80-minute performance.
Very much to the detriment of our NRL Fantasy scores, Robbo seemed to prefer the ever-reliable and incredibly versatile, Mitch Aubusson or young gun, Nat Butcher on more than one occasion throughout the year.
This tactical move even seen Angus spending time in the middle where he was able to put together some respectable scores in limited minutes, yet it was not the style of play we have grown to love due to less space to crab across field and fend opponents for 3-points a pop!
Now, we couldn’t cover off Angus Crichton in our watchlist series if there wasn’t a silver lining to all of this.
Outta Their League: NRL Fantasy Community
The potentially great news ahead of 2020 is in respect to his likely starting price based on a high-40’s average. After price decreases to the tune of $193k, Crichton only needs a start to become one of the better value buys all season given he was once a genuine captain option on any given week.
It’s difficult to predict who will wear the number 12 for the premiers in 2020, but should Crichton get the first opportunity over the likes of Butcher and Aubusson, you’ll be hard pressed to find a better option at his price.
CTR
Esan Marsters | $558,000
We were gifted the ‘template’ Centre pairing of Bateman and Nikora in 2019.
But in reality, both options spent very little time playing one in from the Wing. As a result, it’s likely they’ll both be available at 2RF only in 2020.
If this is the case, it will really open up the Centre position to one of the more difficult positions to nail, and picking options with genuine upside and some level of consistency will prove key.
When we take a look at the performances of the genuine Centre options in 2019, you’ll find the likes of Mitchell and Hopoate topping the charts – but we’ve got Marsters as an interesting option for your watchlist.
Given, he’s not a fallen gun to the same degree as the previous two players profiled, but an interesting option none-the-less.
The New Zealand international finished the year with a three-game average in the low 20’s, which heavily contributed to the sum of $228k in price drops across the year – second only in the overall value reductions for the CTR position to then teammate, Robert Jennings.
Despite the considerable drop in value, Marsters’ up and down performances in 2019 seen a drop in average of just 4 points per game when compared to 2018 – where he was considered a keeper.
We all know he has the tackle busts and offloads to his game, but if he can find the line a little more frequently with his new club in 2020, he may be a nice cut-price keeper in a position with limited reliable options.
Those who do opt for Marsters will be hoping the likes of Holmes, Morgan & Drinkwater will add to his Fantasy game through plenty of early ball, and scoring opportunities.
HOK
Blayke Brailey | $400,000
The 2019 season had 6 players in the HOK position accumulate more than $150k in price rises across the season, and Blayke Brailey looks set to achieve the same this year.
The departure of older brother, Jayden has provided the opportunity for Blayke to show what he can do from an NRL Fantasy perspective with increased minutes, and we’re optimistic he’ll present as a handy scorer and vital cash cow in 2020.
Brailey won’t be available at basement price after having made 15 appearances in 2019, but don’t let that put you off if he’s wearing the number 9 on the team sheet for Round 1.
Brailey played 30 minutes per game in 2019, but played more than 50 minutes on 3 occasions. It was across these games that he managed an impressive 40 point average.
Outta Their League: NRL Fantasy Community
This output was generated almost exclusively through his work-rate in defence, but he did show some attacking promise with two assists against the Titans in Round 2.
It’s more than likely that Brailey will be used in rotation with new signing, Cameron King – but with a predicted starting price of around $250k, and the first crack at the starting Hooker position, the 21 year-old looks set to make around $250k with 50 minutes or more per game.
At this stage, we’ve got Jayden as a near must-have in the cash cow category, and someone who will make it hard to run with the likes of a Cook & McInnes combo from the jump.
WFB/CTR
Bradman Best | $325,000
Apart from being the owner of the world’s greatest Rugby League name, Bradman Best is another player that has landed himself on our watchlist after showing glimpses of great potential, and looking likely to be promoted to the starting 13 in 2020.
The Woy Woy Roosters junior had just two starts on the Wing in 2019, but he did show plenty of promise with a try and a try assist across these games.
Bradman’s efforts will see him priced slightly above basement level due to his 26 point average, but he will start the year at a discount when compared to other options that finished with a mid-twenties average due to playing less than three games.
If Best is a nailed-on starter for the Novocastrian’s in 2020, we like him for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the CTR position is ones we ordinarily advise against stacking with expensive options from Round 1 – due to a history of inconsistent NRL Fantasy scores across the board. This is of course a result of a heavy reliance on scoring tries for the majority of players in the position.
Personally, I have the CTR slots as the lowest priority position to establish early with your ‘keepers’, and it’s players like Best that allow us to get away with prioritising other areas of our teams with our limited salary cap.
Secondly, we seen the cash making potential of the CTR and WFB positions last year with players such as, To’o and Xerri. If Best is able to capitilise on his attacking potential and string together a run of tries, we could see the price rises come thick and fast.
Finally, drafting in the more inexpensive options from Round 1 plays very much into the ‘guns and cows’ recruitment strategy that we will expand on in a future video. Essentially, Best comes into 2020 as an excellent ‘enabler’ to allow the acquisition of a season-long keeper in another position with historically more consistent scores.
We’d ask you to write down his name, but we get the feeling it’s one you’ll have no trouble remembering.
WFB/CTR
Zac Lomax | $389,000
After signing a historic six-year contract with the Dragons in December, Lomax is set to start the season in the number 1 position.
Once described by Fittler as the “gifted one”, Lomax (and this impending switch to Fullback) has NRL Fantasy coaches excited about a potential upswing in his NRL Fantasy output.
As we’ve seen in the past, Fullbacks do typically score better than Wingers and Centres in NRL Fantasy, and Lomax’s natural ability has many believing he’ll comfortably handle this transition to the back.
Since making his NRL debut in 2018, Lomax has made a total of 17 appearances – with just one performance to assess in the Fullback position.
During this sole appearance, he did score 35 points from base stats alone – which will come as encourage news for would-be owners.
The majority of the 2019 season saw Lomax playing at Centre, so it’s likely the young Dragon will keep his dual position status (which comes as another boost to his Fantasy stocks). It’s also worth noting that he was the back-up goal kicker for the Dragons in 5 of the 13 games he played, and will likely take over the reigns from Widdop.
Where things get a little tricky for Lomax is when we take a look at his likely starting price in 2020. Lomax finished the Fantasy season with an average of 26.2, and this will likely have his price in the mid $300,000s to start the year.
The decision for Fantasy coaches will be whether he is worth the extra funds over the bargain basement options in the position.
2RF
Joseph Tapine | $485,000
Tapine came away from his 2018 campaign in great form with a borderline keeper output of 49.5 points per game.
Unfortunately for Raiders fans, the New Zealand international wasn’t able to replicate this form in 2019 and he managed an average of just 29.7. This would also ultimately become the catalyst for a loss in value to the tune of $232,000.
It’s important to highlight that Tapine was affected with more than a few issues throughout the 2019 season, including thumb, ankle and rib injuries which limited the talented middle to just the 14 appearances.
In the 3 appearances across this stretch where Tapine played greater than 55 minutes, he went close to recapturing that 2018 form with 47.3 points per game – which gives potential owners hope of a resurgence in 2020.
If Tapine is fully fit for Round 1 and is set to play around 65-70 minutes per game – his past performances tell us that there is every chance he lifts his average back into that high 40s range, and makes NRL Fantasy coaches a cool $200k in the process.
HLF
Jarome Luai | $249,000
The Panthers have been vocal about the five-eighth position still being up for grabs at the foot of the mountain. And after Burton’s upgraded contact to see him join the top 30 – Luai definitely has some stiff competition.
Despite this, we’re tipping the Samoan representative to get the first crack to partner Nathan Cleary off the back of his experience in the NRL and on the International stage.
Whilst we don’t expect too many points from Luai given he will almost certainly take a backseat to Cleary in terms of organising the team, he has shown the potential to hit the low 30’s consistently across his last 4 starts at five-eighth on the back of his strong running game.
If he is named to start in Round 1 and his price is indicative of his 17.6 point average in 2019, low 30s is all we will need for up to $200k in price rises – and he’ll be a more than handy bench option to enable extra funds to be distributed elsewhere in your squad.
HLF
Pheonix Crossland | $246,000
Not dissimilar to Luai, Crossland also faces intense competition for his place in the starting team – but, the upside is significant if he’s able to nail down a spot over the pre-season.
At just 19 years old, Crossland made his NRL debut last season against the Warriors in Round 16. The Erina Eagles junior was only required for 12 mintues in this game, but this was enough to show new coach, Adam O’Brien why he is earmarked as the long-term Halfback for the proud Newcastle Club.
When asked about what he likes about the crafty young Halfbacks game, O’Brien mentioned it’s his strong kicking game and ability to take some pressure off Pearce. As NRL Fantasy coaches, we’ll be hoping he is given that opportunity to put boot to ball and establish a solid base off his kick metre statistics.
Looking at Crossland’s 2019 Canterbury Cup statistics, he featured in 15 games for 6 tries, 4 try assists, and an average of 208 kick metres per game. This output resulted in a low 30s average at the Canterbury Cup level, and he’d only need to match this in first grade in order to make more than enough money to justify the trade.
2RF
Luciano Leilua | $503,000
The Samoan international comes into 2020 as one of the more interesting mid-range options in the 2RF position due to his attacking flair, and his budget friendly price-point of just over $500k.
Leilua failed to lock down a consistent starting role for the Red V last year, and averaged just 41 minutes per game due to primarily featuring from the interchange.
But a deeper look into the stats will show that ability was never an issue, and given the opportunity to play to big minutes – the skillful forward is more than capable of putting up keeper numbers.
Across the 2018 and 19 seasons, Leilua played 70 minutes or more on 8 occasions for an impressive 55.6 points per game.
Whilst he has some serious competition for points in the Tigers pack, he’s one to throw on the watchlist and monitor closely with respect to his game time.
If he is able to nail down a starting edge role, we could have a handy cut-price keeper on our hands.
HLF
Kyle Flanagan | $533,000
If you’re looking for a mid range HLF to partner with a premium asset, Kyle Flanagan looks a tempting prospect at his new club.
An injury opened up the door for Flanagan to get a taste of first grade with the Sharks in 2019, and he showed more than enough to suggest he has a promising career ahead of him as he takes on the task of filling the shoes of Cooper Cronk.
Across the 8 games where Flanagan featured for the full 80-minutes in 2019, the 21 year old prospect developed an average of 41 NRL Fantasy points per game.
Interestingly, Flanagan still managed to produce consistent scores despite kicking for less than 200 kick metres per game – while the man he is replacing at his new club featured prominently with the last tackle options and kicked for 300 metres a game across the season.
After back-to-back premierships, the Roosters will be inclined to transition Flanagan into the already successful system, and if this means Flanagan was to pick up the additional kick metres – we could see him push his average closer to 50 points.
Throw in the goal-kicking due to the departure of Mitchell and inject players such as Tupou & Tedesco to assist throughout the season, and you’ve got another worthy watchlist candidate capable of consistently hitting keeper-like scores.
WFB
Valentine Holmes | $600,000
Finally, we round out this episode of the NRL Fantasy watchlist series with former New York Jets running back, Valentine Holmes.
The much anticipated return to the NRL for the former Cronulla Sharks star represents an intriguing option for NRL Fantasy this year.
Despite being away from the game for an extended period, he’s one of the greatest athletes in our game today, and you’d expect it won’t take him too long to readjust to Rugby League at the highest level after a full pre-season with his new club, the North Queensland Cowboys.
Holmes comes into 2020 with a budget friendly price tag for a player of his calibre at just $600k – which is some $270k cheaper than James Tedesco.
Those looking to take a punt on the former Queensland and Australian representative will hoping he can replicate the form shown between Rounds 10 and 25 in 2018 where he managed an average output of 56 points per game.
Priced at roughly 40 points per game, a return to his form would make him an excellent value in 2020.
FRF
Liam Knight | $570,000
Knight enters 2020 as an intriguing option for NRL Fantasy coaches due to the departure of a number of experienced campaigners in the Rabbitohs forward pack, which is likely to open the door for a promotion to the starting 13.
The transition from the interchange to the starting team looks set to have an immediate impact on the NRL Fantasy scores of the 25 year old prospect as his mid 30s average from the bench did climb to 45 points in his limited starts in the run-on side in 2019.
However, the most enticing insight comes via Knight’s average of 53 points across the 3 games where he played over 50 minutes last season.
If Knight is called upon to step up with extended minutes with the likes Sam and George Burgess missing from the team in 2020, a BE of 39 and a PPM of 0.92 makes him a solid bet for considerable cash rises, and has him well placed as a potential cut-price keeper in a tricky FRF position.
FRF
Moeaki Fotuaika | $578,000
Not dissimilar to Knight, Fotuaika could present as another cut-price keeper option if we see the trend of extended minutes toward the back-end of 2019 continue into the new season.
Whilst the dynamic young prop managed just 40 points across the season, we got glimpse of what may be to come with an average of 50 points across 6 games where he played 55 minutes or more.
In a big blow for the Gold Coast team, Ryan James is again sidelined for an extended period after another ACL injury, and Jai Arrow has committed to the South Sydney Rabbitohs from 2021 and beyond.
As a result, Fotuaika looks well-placed for extra minutes and will look to lead his side from the front throughout the year.
Bare in mind, the Greenbank Raiders junior did have both knee and wrist surgery in the off-season, and despite being described as “relentless” with his recovery schedule by the Titans performance team – it will be worth monitoring how he transitions back to full contact in the later stages of the pre season.
FRF
Trent Merrin | $578,000
We round out today’s episode with another interesting FRF priced at a 40-point average in former NSW and Australian representative, Trent Merrin.
Merrin had a quiet year by his standards in his most recent campaign in the NRL in 2018, and averaged mid 30s in just over 40 minutes a game for the Panthers.
The numbers are much more encouraging when you consider his workrate in 2019 with the Leeds Rhinos, where the skilful middle ran for over 100 metres, made over 30 tackles, and had 2 offloads per game – which roughly translates to a mid 50s average.
A deeper dive into the statistics will reveal that Merrin has matched this output at the highest level in the NRL, but you have to look as far back as the 2015 & 2016 seasons where he averaged 55 & 65 minutes a game respectively for the Red V.
Whilst it would be an incredible effort to wind back the clock and achieve this again in 2020, Merrin does have far more pedigree than the other forwards around his price-point, and past owners will be keeping a close eye on his minutes over the opening Rounds.