ByronRead on for an in-depth look at all the action across Round 5 of the NRL through the lens of two of the biggest NRL Fantasy Tragics, Byron & Liam from ‘Outta Their League’. The boys will also take a look ahead to Round 6 by putting the team lists under the microscope and discussing all the NRL Fantasy relevant ins and outs for every club.
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Broncos (16) vs. Tigers (22)
Suncorp Stadium | Thursday, 11 April 2019
Broncos
The pressure continues to mount for Siebold’s men as they produced another sub-par performance in their loss to the Tigers on the weekend despite harsh criticism from the media, fans and former players in the lead-up that set the stage for what was considered a ‘must-win’ game.
Despite the result, there was one shining light for NRL Fantasy coaches and the Brisbane faithful in a young prop playing his first game for the year, Payne Haas. Elevated from the extended bench to the starting 13 ahead of kick-off, Haas was heavy on the radar of NRL Fantasy coaches by Thursday evening – and for good reason!
We got a look into his points-per-minute capabilities in his debut last year where he managed 20 points in about as many minutes, but 65 points in 64 minutes in Round 5 was truly something special.
With 45 tackles and over 150 metres ran, expect Haas to feature regularly for the Broncos for the remainder of the season. For NRL Fantasy coaches, he looms as an excellent buy ahead of Round 6 given his Break Even of -15. However, don’t expect these minutes moving forward as they were inflated due to an injury to Gillett and Tevita Pangai Junior will likely eat into his game time upon his return in Round 7. Nevertheless, Haas is set to make a substantial amount of money even his game time drops to 30-40 minutes from the interchange moving forward. At $286k, he is a great trade target for a maturing cash cow like Jacob Host or Rueben Garrick.
A couple of other performances from popular buys in Jack Bird (20) and Andrew McCullough (49) would have left coaches a little dejected, however, both are capable of more. Jack Bird enters round 6 with a break-even of 40 this round so he has peaked in price for now. If you can swing it, look to trade him out to the likes of Kalyn Ponga who has bottomed out this week. With that said, don’t panic if you are forced to hold due to other issues as he has shown he is more than capable of producing a passable score in the CTW position. McCullough, on the other hand, remains a hold due to his pedigree.
Tigers
Chee-Kam’s last minute try provided an impressive away win for the Tigers, who continue their solid start to the season with three wins from their opening five games.
Marsters (42) scored all his points from base stats with no tries, and no try assists. Whilst these impressive numbers are a regular occurrence for the proven CTW gun, the availability of Bateman, Capewell and Nikora in the position makes it hard for Fantasy coaches to justify a trade-in at this stage of the year.
Farah (70) continues to turn back the clock, making him the most expensive NRL Fantasy player this season ($915,000). Coaches seem to be waiting for him to slip-up, but his resurgence continues without any sign of slowing down.
There was a debate during the week on whether to sell or keep Garner (67), however, this performance reassured coaches that he is a definite hold and looks set for plenty more price rises. Lastly, Twal (69) continues to impress as a POD (owned by 5.1% – avg. 55.6) option in the 2RF/FRF position off the back of 58 tackles in this game.
Titans (30) vs. Panthers (24)
CBus Super Stadium | Friday, 12 April 2019
Titans
Garth Brennan’s men scraped home by 6 points in one of the upsets of the Round in their effort to ensure they simultaneously sent Michael Gordon out a winner in his milestone game and officially got their 2019 season off the ground. In a game where the Titans seemed confident that their attacking ability alone would get them home, there were a number of outside backs exceeding their averages with Gordon (55), Peachey (61) and Copley (55) all surpassing the 50 mark.
Over in the forwards, we saw a huge improvement from Ryan James who scored 75 points in 69 minutes in his best score of the year. After a disappointing start, James is currently available at a $133,000 discount and would be great value should he recapture the form of previous years.
Jai Arrow is ticking along nicely with a mid 50s average to start the year, despite his minutes becoming a topic of concern for many coaches. Given he’s been cleared of any injury concerns ahead of Round 6, you can safely lock Arrow into your 17 again this week.
Mitch Rein put together another 80-minute performance that resulted in 53 NRL Fantasy points and another handy price rise to the tune of $34k. Whilst Rein has already increased in value by $80k, it isn’t too late the jump on board the Rein Train given Peats isn’t set to return until around Round 15 and he enters Round 6 with a more than achievable break-even of 22.
Panthers
The Panthers disappointing start to the season continued with the loss against the Titans. That is only two wins now from the opening five rounds, which raises some early question marks over the the highly touted Panthers.
The back-line continue to lack spark, with no player scoring more than 28 points. This season, none of the back 5 of the Panthers is averaging more than 29 points which is a massive concern for both coaches and fans. Dylan Edwards (7) positional switch to the wing is now a clear sign for coaches to cut their losses and sell despite his value has already having dropped over $150,000 over the first 5 rounds.
After a slow start, Cleary is now showing why he is a premium halfback option with 52 points in a losing team. With Cleary looking to build some consistent form, he is a player to monitor and pick-up with a discounted price-tag.
While Kikau’s (50) looked back at his destructive best and he shapes as one for the watch list should he be successful in stringing together like performances on a consistent basis.
James Fisher-Harris (59) has arguably been Penrith’s best over the opening rounds and is certainly the most consistent NRL Fantasy player with a try, try assist and 45 tackles in his most recent outing. Currently owned by 3.4% and with an average of 55.8, he is a valuable POD worth considering.
Cowboys (12) vs. Storm (18)
1300 SMILES Stadium | Friday, 12 April 2019
Cowboys
Unfortunately, there are not many positives to take out of the loss against the Storm and a very concerning aspect of the Cowboy’s game in recent weeks is the limited attacking options outside of Michael Morgan.
McGuire (50) had the highest score for the Cowboys, followed by Morgan (46) and McLean (40). Morgan clearly the dominant halfback much like DCE at the Sea Eagles. His value ($572,000) is steadily increasing each round, but he will need to improve his average (46.6) to justify him as a keeper til’ the end of the season. This is due to the likes of Cleary, DCE and Johnson currently positioned a cut-above of Morgan and most coaches will look to move him onto one of these primo HLF options by head to head finals unless Morgan can push his average to 50 or more.
The backline for the Cowboys continues to disappoint with no one scoring more than 30 points. Kahu, who is still owned by 32.7% of coaches, looks to have plateaued with 23pts (avg. 25.8) and looks to be a trade-out option this week.
Storm
Now five from five to start the year, the Storm look every bit the Premiership contender this year as they did in 2018.
When we look at the Storm, we have to start with arguably the best 6 in the game and the focal point of Melbourne’s attack, Cameron Munster.
Munster averaged just 44.8 last year, but with the increased responsibility in attack in this post-Billy era he has improved on this by more than 10 points with an average of 55.4 to start the year. He is currently inside the top 5 halves in NRL Fantasy and we see him remaining here for the season as a genuine keeper in 2019. His most recent score of 64 was helped by a Try Assist, 3 Tackle Busts and 273 Kick Metres that far exceeded those of Croft who managed just 27-points in another disappointing performance in NRL Fantasy terms.
Cameron Smith did what he invariably does and exceeded 50 points off the back of a busy defensive effort.
Rabbitohs (28) vs. Warriors (24)
Sunshine Coast Stadium | Saturday, 13 April 2019
Rabbitohs
Another of the in-form teams of the competition, the Rabbitohs impressed again in their effort to turn away a brave Warriors outfit on the Sunshine Coast.
After back-to-back scores of 70 & 86, Cook simply is a must-have and a set-and-forget captain option. With ownership at around 25%, non-owners run the risk of sliding down the rankings. With that said, it actually was Cody Walker who stole the show in this game with 4 tries in an incredible attacking performance that amounted to 90 NRL Fantasy points.
Walker looms as a POD option as your third WFB alongside two of the genuine keepers in RTS, Ponga and Teddy.
Murray and Surgess both failed to crack 40 points in Round 5, but both remain a hold at this stage of the season. Adam Reynolds just managed to crack the 40-mark last week, but he is still comfortably up amongst the best HLF options to start the year.
Warriors
The Warriors were courageous in defeat, especially after the late withdrawal from playmaker Blake Green.
RTS (79) continued his impressive start to the season which included one try, 12 tackle breaks, and over 200 running metres. Since the departure of Johnson, RTS has stepped-up and shown some dazzling attacking football and is the in-form WFB across the competition to start the season (Avg 58.2).
Chanel Harris-Tavita (42), performed well in only his second NRL game, while the always dependable Tohu Harris (62) scored a try and made 33 tackles in another impressive NRL Fantasy performance. It’s not too late if you haven’t traded in Harris-Tavita at $320,000, as there is plenty of price rises to come.
One of the surprises for the Warriors this season is Lachlan Burr (62), who started again in place of Papali’i. With a price rise of over $200,000 and an average of 42.2, the once seen short-term keeper is making coaches re-think their trade strategies and keep him for a little while longer.
Lastly, the hooker position has been an issue for the Warriors this season due to Luke remaining under injury cloud. Including Luke, three other players having occupied the position this season; Roache, Lawton and Tevaga. Unfortunately, yet again, Luke was taken off due to an injury concern (after 32 minutes) and Tevaga (62) was the beneficiary through increased minutes and a try to his name.
Knights (18) vs. Sea Eagles (26)
McDonald Jones Stadium | Saturday, 13 April 2019
Knights
Despite the Knights attack failing to click once again, we seen Ponga and Ramien both produce scores above 50 in performances we have come to expect from both of these attacking weapons.
Ponga looks a different player now that he is back in the Fullback position and he looks to have bottomed out this week after $136k in price drops and a Round 6 break even of 40. He is an excellent buy this week, however he is far from a POD with a huge 45% ownership. Ramien, on the other hand, has lost around $50k so far this season and looms as a POD in the CTW position with 2.59% ownership.
Speaking of players that have leaked plenty of cash, we have to mention Mitchell Pearce. With an average for the 2018 season of 50.1, Pearce has been a long way off the mark so far this year managing just 38.4 points a game. For this reason, he will be on the chopping block for the few coaches that currently own him, however, he is one that is hot on my trade-in list.
The prospect of owning Mitchell Pearce with less than 4% ownership across NRL Fantasy is a very attractive proposition for me, particularly when we could be looking at a $150k plus discount in the coming weeks. One to watch and a hold for current owners (call me crazy!)
Finally, Klemmer is now without a doubt a primo FRF this year with scores in the mid-60s in his last two outings. Alongside Twal, Klemmer represents great value as an alternative to the likes of Fifita and Taupau.
Sea Eagles
The Sea Eagles are slowly finding there rhythm which coincides with the recent fine form of Daley Cherry-Evans this season. DCE (73) is showing why he is the primo NRL Fantasy halfback of the competition with an average in excess of 65 points to start he year.
Taupau (45) played only 38 minutes and despite his outstanding PPM capabilities, if less than 40 minutes per game continue for Taupau this will raise concern among NRL Fantasy coaches. One to watch, however, with Fonua-Blake set to miss some game time through suspension we expect Taupau to go full beast-mode over the net couple of weeks and get back to scoring in the 50s consistently.
Jurbo (57) again did what he does best in consistently 55+, making him one of the most reliable players in NRL Fantasy. and a genuine captain option.
Popular cheapie, Garrick (33) who is owned by 31.3% of coaches, managed a try against the Knights and another low 30s score. He is a hold at this stage given his low break even and he looks set to continue slowly scraping together price rises for the short-term.
Sharks (16) vs. Roosters (30)
PointsBet Stadium | Saturday, 13 April 2019
Sharks
The big news to come out of the Sharks in this game was the hamstring injury to Andrew Fifita. Whilst he has been cleared at this stage, as an owner, I will be watching late mail very closely for a potential withdrawal given he is so vital to their success and I can’t see Morris rushing him back if he isn’t close to 100%.
I’ve had a lot of messages with people asking if Fifita to Twal is a good trade, and whilst I really like Twal, Fifita is absolutely a hold until we see how this injury affects his performance (if at all).
Shaun Johnson is a proven keeper despite just 35 points returning from hamstring tightness and popular dual CTW/2RF options in Nikora and Capewell continue to make money and produce keeper-like scores with both guys scoring in the 60s.
Those who jumped on Xerri would have been expecting more, however, if you take out the errors, his base stats were again enough to ensure he makes money in his potentially limited tenure in the starting side.
Roosters
The Roosters out-classed the Sharks in this one and look well positioned to push for back-to-back titles in 2019 even at this early stage. It’s a rare feat, however I think this Roosters side is a real chance.
Latrell Mitchell (60) who was back to his NRL Fantasy best, had an impressive game which consisted of a try, 4 tackle breaks and a try assist. He is someone to monitor throughout the season, like Marsters, however due to a rare year of being spoiled for choice in the CTR position, there are dual position options which take priority at this stage of the year.
Tedesco (44) put together a typical performance with a trademark try and produced five tackle breaks along the way. Cordner (77) lead by example and was the NRL Fantasy standout for the Roosters in this game.
Angus Crichton (35) started the game, yet he is still finding his NRL Fantasy feet with his new side. He is currently owned by just 3.1% and has dropped over $100,000 in value, therefore he remains one for the watch list given his pedigree and cut-price.
Dragons (40) vs. Bulldogs (4)
Kogarah Oval | Sunday, 14 April 2019
Dragons
The Dragons arguably produced the performance of the round against the Bulldogs. There is no coincidence that since Widdop’s shoulder injury, the halves pairing of Norman and Hunt have improved through greater responsibility and a seemingly clearer attacking direction.
Ben Hunt (98) had the NRL Fantasy performance of the week, with two tries and three try assists. While Corey Norman continued his recent fine run of form with 66 points, which included two try assists.
Lawrie (54) is an indefinite hold (for the moment) with a huge 40 tackle showing. Whereas, Host (25) who is still owned by 19.6%, has plateaued and is a definite trade-out option. Host to Haas, anyone?!
McInnes (60) has cemented his spot as a NRL Fantasy primo again in 2019 with another 60-point performance and he now boasts a impressive 62.4 season average. Those who started the year with him and then moved him on due to spending some time at lock would be kicking themselves at the moment!
Bulldogs
I was at this game and the Bulldogs performance, unfortunately, wasn’t any prettier watching from the grandstand.
From an NRL Fantasy perspective, there wasn’t a whole lot to like either.
Popular cash cow option, Jayden Okunbor managed just 15 points after a blistering performance the week prior and Holland crashed back down to earth with a highly disappointing 7 points.
Unsurprisingly, Lewis scored well below his average with and the only notable NRL Fantasy performances from the team come from the ever-reliable, Rhyse Martin with 58 points and potential cash cow, Odgen who managed 39 points in about as many minutes in Napa’s absence.
With a break-even of 13 ahead of Round 6, Ogden looks set for some cash rises over the next month or more as Napa recovers from an ankle injury.
Raiders (19) vs. Eels (0)
GIO Stadium | Sunday, 14 April 2019
Raiders
The Raiders are flying at the moment after stringing together consistent 80-minute performances and starting the year 4 & 1.
Starting with their new Fullback, Klokstad continued building his case for keeper status in the WFB position this year after another impressive 40+ score. CNK has now made $176k and has a three-round average of 48.0. The price rises are set to continue with a break-even of 27 ahead of Round 6, however, this may end up being irrelevant if you end up keeping him all year.
Bateman continued his run toward being the best CTW in NRL Fantasy this year with another mid 50s score off the back of his base stats. He too has made nearly $175k and is one of the few players who deservingly carries the ‘must-have’ badge of honour.
Both centres for the Raiders in Croker and Leilua were great with a 40 and a 55 respectively to finish the game and Papalii bounced back into NRL Fantasy form with 74 points in 55 minutes on the back of his first try of the year. At this stage, I’d look to avoid him as a trade in target until we can see some consistent runs on the board that justify the trade.
Eels
There wasn’t much to like from a NRL Fantasy perspective. No player hit the NRL Fantasy 50 point benchmark for the Eels this round, with Alvaro topping the charts at 49 points.
Lane and Mahoney both hit 48 points, which slightly increased their overall value. Mahoney has plenty more money to be made and looks to be someone to keep for a least another few weeks while he maintains 70+ minutes per game.
Moses (29) has had a very impressive season, however he had a night to forget against the Raiders with two errors. Popular NRL Fantasy cheapie, Sivo (16) had a disappointing game but remains a hold with a break even of 15 ahead of Round 6.
Until next time, happy trading!
Contributors: Byron & Liam
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