ByronYour NRL Fantasy questions answered ahead of Round 19.
Billy Luhrman
Who to trade-in out of Jason Taumalolo and Payne Haas for the run home?
Firstly, I rate both players very highly as pick-ups this week.
If I could only take one of the two, I’d have the former set-and-forget captain in Payne Haas as my primary target.
While Taumalolo has hit his straps over the past three games and I’m a very happy owner, he has scored 5-points per game less than Haas over the past three, and I expect his current output is close to what we’ll see for the remaining 7 Rounds.
In contrast, the departure of Lodge and the Broncos’ soft draw (once they get past the Panthers) are two significant factors that combine to create a favourable position for Haas to improve his output.
A current edge and the potential to create further separation is enough for me to take Payne in a close one.
Nate Nathan
Is SJ a trade-out? I’m looking to move to Mahoney or Olakau’atu.
Johnson was very disappointing against the Raiders coming away 22 NRL Fantasy points, and it’s understandably got much of the OTL community concerned heading into Round 19.
We even had comments in the media indicating that he was disinterested throughout the contest, with his mind set on returning home to the Warriors in 2022.
However, taking a closer look at the numbers, it’s clear that we have an outlier in Johnson’s missed tackles.
Up until last week, Johnson was averaging two missed tackles per game — but this number climbed to 9 over the weekend, amounting to 18 points in demerits.
An ordinary defensive performance would have us back up to the late 30s, and at a level that we’ve come to expect from time to time out of these ‘tier 2’ Fantasy halfbacks.
For those with very few trades, I think he’s worth another look with a 5-game average of 62.6 prior to Round 18, and the Bulldogs up next.
He gets the perfect fixture here to bounce-back with some attacking stats, and if he can tidy up the defensive work as well — you’d have to assume he’s a chance at a handy NRL Fantasy score.
What coaches may need to consider though, is the fact that Johnson’s ceiling has taken a hit with the loss of the goal kicking duties and decreased kick metres as Trindall continues to become more involved.
Perhaps mid 50’s is the new high-point we should expect from SJ moving forward, as opposed to those 70+ performances we’ve seen in recent weeks when we was securing an additional 6 to 14 points in goalkicking to go along with his healthier kick metres stats.
If you’re in a fortunate position with above average trades and you’re looking for a higher ceiling — I can definitely understand the move to a premium player.
Of the two options mentioned, I’d be bypassing Olakau’atu at this stage of the season, and going straight up to a genuine top-17 scorer in Mahoney.
Brayden Witte
Any good cash out options this week? Savage would’ve been the man.
Unfortunately, Xavier Savage was the standout cash out option this week, and with a season ending injury confirmed — it’s very slim pickings for NRL Fantasy coaches looking to free up some funds this week.
The only other guy you could take a flyer on in the outside backs is Billy Smith at the Roosters, but I wouldn’t want to bet on him keeping Josh Morris out of the side of the remainder of the year — so you’d have to be comfortable with him potentially becoming a red dot at some stage, or at least not being a weekly starter.
If you can forgo $100k in unlocked cash, Tom Starling is another interesting option who appears to have played himself into a 55-min role off the interchange in recent weeks. The benefit here is that he becomes a nice break-glass emergency play with a mid to high forties output in this role, should you ever find yourself digging deep into your emergencies at the end of the season.
White Air Monarchs
J. Brailey to Mahoney the play with 9 trades remaining?
We’ve spoken about Brailey being a prime upgrade target for a little while now, and we still haven’t seen that bounce in his scores that many of us were hoping would come after a freshen up during the Round 17 bye.
Brailey now has just one score above 50 in his last 7 starts, and Mahoney wasted no time in his return game reminding us of his upside with another 70+ score to his name.
Mahoney is still priced nearly $200k from his peak in Round 5, and represents excellent value this week.
Given he hasn’t played a whole lot of Footy this year, Reed should be fresh and ready to help his side charge into semi-final Footy.
I’d be locking this one in with confidence.
If you don’t need to target another Hooker, other considerations for me would be Payne Haas and Cameron Murray.
Dylan
Trading Harris to Mahoney, but is it also worth doing Moses to Murray?
Unfortunately, Moses owners are in a bit of a tricky spot this week.
We don’t have an official return date as of yet, but the Eels are hopeful his back fracture will heal naturally and he’ll be available in the coming weeks.
Given the uncertainty at this stage, it may be smart to wait a week to get some updated news — particularly for those coaches getting really thin on remaining trades.
However, if you’re set on trading him out and you need to make a charge at head to head finals — I think Murray has to be near top of the list.
Interestingly, Murray’s three-game average of 73.3 can only be bettered by Mitch Moses, as well as Cherry-Evans and Cleary — making him one of the in-form players available in the game — despite his friendly price-point still under $700k.
The dual-positioning is also critical, and the Bunnies draw looks enticing for Murray’s Fantasy output with upcoming fixtures against the Warriors, the Dragons (twice), and the Titans.
The only other consideration I’d suggest you factor in here is the management of his minutes, or a potential rest for Murray in the short-term.
Murray got through plenty of work in Origin, and when backing up against the Bulldogs on Sunday.
We’ve seen in the past that Bennett is happy to manage the workload of his most important players, and it wouldn’t surprise at all if was to sit Murray out for one of these upcoming games that the Bunnies should win comfortably.
andyryansyd
I’m saving trades at the expense of points in the chance that Cleary comes back, stupid or smart? P.s Love the podcast, you boys have saved my sanity this year.
Thanks, Ryan! Appreciate you mate.
Assuming Cleary’s rehab is successful and he’s able to reach his strength and range of movement goals ahead of a Round 20 return, I’d say this is a smart play.
Particularly if you’re a head to head player that’s not appearing in danger of missing your finals at this stage.
Provided he’s able to carry out his ordinary role, it’s obvious that Cleary is an out-and-out game changer in NRL Fantasy — based on his average, but also the way our platform works with double points for captaincy.
The fact you could have the significant advantage of Cleary as captain at a much lower ownership makes the prospect even more enticing.
The risks in allowing these other trade opportunities to pass you by while you wait for Cleary are, of course, the chance he picks up a knock and re-injures the shoulder — or if he shows any caution on return and keeps himself out of contact where possible, reducing his tendency to take on the line in good ball.
If you’re of the belief that the Panthers wouldn’t risk him unless they were confident he can play out his ordinary role, then Cleary could absolutely lead you to your head to head league title, or a late charge in the overall rankings.
harryygould
Is Doueihi a good trade-in?
As I mentioned at the top of the show, Liam jumped on Doueihi last week and was a beneficiary of his explosive return game to the halves.
As impressive as he was in this game, I’d probably only be jumping on under the same circumstances as Liam whereby he’s an 18th man / loop option.
This is primarily due to the fact that this big score was off the back of 5 try assists, as opposed to a big kick metre tallies he was putting up in his stint in the halves earlier this year.
Based on this one game sample size, it looks as though it’s within the game plan for Brooks to continue to control the general play kicking — which makes Douiehi a low floor, high ceiling play that is heavily reliant on attacking stats.
If you’re able to pick up in the 18 slot in your side, I’d say you’ll be looping him in at least a couple of times with the Bulldogs twice, the Warriors , Cowboys and Sharks all coming up on the run-home.