ByronThe team at Outta Their League put the most popular player movements in NRL Fantasy under the microscope.
Read on for all the relevant talking points surrounding each player before locking in your trades this week.
Unsurprisingly, our list is dominated by players taking the field this week in a limited round- but our analysis across all 16 NRL teams will return from Round 17.
Prefer to get your NRL Fantasy news in audio format? Tune in to the weekly NRL Fantasy Podcast by Outta Their League here, on iTunes or Spotify!
Who’s Hot
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (WFB) | WARRIORS // $613,000 | AVG: 50.3 | BE: 32
RTS returned to his early season form with back-to-back 60+ point performances – just in time for Round 16.
The electric WFB’s price bottomed out last week, so it’s the ideal time to jump on as we expect continual price rises over the coming weeks.
If you’re in the market for a premium WFB, RTS should absolutely be on your radar.
Ryan Matterson (2RF) | TIGERS // $747,000 | AVG: 53.6 | BE: 63
One of my biggest NRL Fantasy regrets this season was not trading in Matterson.
We shouldn’t be too surprised by his scores, as we saw what he was capable of when he played at the Roosters (in the 2RF position) last season. His overall average only dropped due to being played in five-eighth, as well as coming off the interchange towards the back-end of the season.
He scored his second lowest score (40) of the season against the Bunnies. However, this isn’t cause for concern as this was only the second occasion where he scored less than 48 points this season.
Breaking his way into the premium forward status tier and boasting round 16 availability – Matterson wouldn’t look out of place in the top 17 of any team.
Alex Twal (FRF, 2RF) | TIGERS // $676,000 | AVG: 51.8 | BE: 48
Twal has been another reliable forward for the Tigers this season, alongside Matterson.
Twal got the accolades early in the NRL Fantasy season, but he has continued keeper form status since (whilst seemingly going under the radar). In 14 appearances, the Lebanon international has scored under 46 points only 3 times this year.
With his dual position status, no Origin duties and Round 16 availability – he could be a handy player in your squad til the end of the season.
Reece Robson (HOK) | Dragons // $374,000 | AVG: 38.3 | BE: 11
There is plenty of hype for the 21-year-old hooker, who is in the unfortunate position of playing second fiddle to Cameron McInnes.
Robson has been making some solid profits for owners over the past four rounds with $151,000 in price rises to date. With another low break even, he looks to continue this trend for weeks to come.
The busy middle looks to be on a similar Fantasy path to his teammate Blake Lawrie at the moment, and if he continues his form for another 4-6 rounds – he could quite easily nudge that $500,000 mark.
If you have’t picked him up yet, it isn’t too late due to the Round 16 availability, reasonable price-tag and a very low break even – trade him in this week to get a handy number in 16 and get in before the ship sails!
Shaun Johnson (2RF) | SHARKS // $563,000 | AVG: 42.8 | BE: 46
It has been a strange NRL Fantasy season for Johnson with his Fantasy stats now being shared with Townsend.
Coaches have been used to him dominating the attacking stats for the Warriors and being one of the best NRL Fantasy players on offer. However, sharing stats (including valuable kick metres) has seen his value drop by a staggering $210,000.
There is obvious risk to trading him in as he is no longer the dominant force he once was with the Warriors, however when we see glimpses of the “old” Johnson thinking “run first” and racking up impressive scores as he did in Round 15 – we can be easily persuaded!
Josh Kerr (FRF) | Dragons // $212,000 | AVG: 15 | BE: 21
The Dragons are set to be light on their forward artillery this week with both Frizell and Vaughan both in Origin camp. As a result, the door opens for bargain basement FRF, Kerr. This has seen plenty of coaches jump on – even for just the one score (and to free up cash).
We saw his potential during the AllStars match, where he scored 37 NRL Fantasy points in 20 minutes. With a bit a luck, the big fella will make the minutes count against the Storm this week.
Karl Lawton (HOK, CTR) | Warriors // $409,000 | AVG: 32.4 | BE: 19
With a season-ending injury to Roache and Luke seemingly now out of favour – Lawton looks have to have secured that starting hooker role.
With a 3 game average of 37, there is plenty to like at his price point if he is able to secure upwards of 50 minutes a game.
Over the past two seasons, Lawton has played between 45-50 minutes four times accumulating an average of 38 during those appearances.
Another advantage is that he has dual position status in the tricky CTR position, which could come in very handy if Bateman or Nikora pick up an injury at any stage at the back-end of the year.
Jazz Tevaga (HOK, 2RF) | Warriors // $527,000 | AVG: 42.3 | BE: 16
A dual position player who is benefiting from injuries to both Burr and Harris, Tevaga has bolted into contention for a number of coaches this week. With an impressive 81 point haul from base stats in Round 15 – it’s easy to see why!
Tevaga has played the majority of his minutes from the interchange, however when playing more than 40 minutes (10 times this season) he has racked up a very handy 48.4 points a game.
Burr returns this week from the interchange, however Tevaga appears to have held his position in the starting line-up for now.
As a result, he looks a handy pick-up to carry you up to Round 21 when Tohu Harris is tipped to return.
Jacob Host (FRF, 2RF) | Dragons // $408,000 | AVG: 29.8 | BE: -8
Host is an interesting one as he was a popular sell only four weeks ago. But things can change pretty quickly in NRL Fantasy! Due to representative football and some key injuries to the Dragons forward pack – the young 2RF has found another gear and has positioned himself as a handy trade-in target once again.
With a 3 game average of 54 combined with a mouth-watering break even of -8, we can understand why plenty of coaches are jumping on the Host bandwagon ahead of Round 16.
Who’s Not
Siliva Havili | Raiders (HOK) // $425,000 | AVG: 28.9 | BE: 40
The most popular trade-out option of the week is nuggety Raiders hooker, Havili.
Unfortunately, Siliva feel short of his break even of 18 last week and comes into Round 17 with a break even of 40.
Whilst he won’t take the field in Round 16 and therefore won’t lose any more value – he is a certain sell before he next takes the field.
Kalyn Ponga (WFB, HLF) // $800.000 | AVG: 53.6 | BE: 67
There are plenty moving on the superstar dual position (HLF, WFB) option this week in light of news that he’s picked up a calf injury.
If you’re one of those people – I’d strongly suggest reversing that trade! Ponga is an absolute must in your final 17 and he could be back as early as next week.
He’s the most owned player in NRL Fantasy for a reason – don’t waste the trade getting him out of your side only to have to burn through one or two more to get him back in and ensure you don’t fall away from the pack!
Bronson Xerri (CTR) // $505,000 | AVG: 37 | BE: 50
Another interesting addition to the popular sells this week is breakout star, Bronson Xerri. As a rule of thumb, overall players should try to avoid selling any players that will suit up in Round 16.
Unfortunately, a reshuffle in the Sharks backline seen Xerri pushed to the wing against the Bulldogs where he managed just 25 pts and dropped around $15k as a result.
He was, however, robbed of a try and a stack of attacking statistics by an incorrect decoy line ran by Nikora. If Nikora got this right – it could’ve made for very different reading.
I’ve got Bronson Xerri as a hold this week despite the inflated break even unless an initial drop in value will completely derail your trade plans as you work toward your ideal final 17.
With a high ceiling, Xerri could prove more than handy this week.
Zac Lomax (WFB, CTR) // $383,000 | AVG: 28.1 | BE: -4
Another outside back on the chopping block this week is dual position youngster, Lomax.
Owners would be devastated he isn’t going to suit up this week, but a thumb injury is going to keep him sidelines until at least Round 17.
I can understand the reasoning behind making the trade this week, but I’d consider holding as the move won’t free up too much cash and the dual position status will make him a valuable option to cover injuries in your squad from your emergency list.
Dylan Walker (CTR) // $397,000 | AVG: 31.5 | BE: 47
Walker looks an obvious sell this week after two scores under 16 in the past three weeks sees him looking up at a break even of 47.
Add to this the fact he doesn’t play this week – he is one that I absolutely agree is a sell. After opening his account for the year with back-to-back scores of 47 – Walker has regressed back to the low 30s average we have come to expect in years prior.
If I owned both Walker and Lomax, I’d be moving on Walker first.
Anthony Milford (HLF) // $743,000 | AVG: 54.3 | BE: 66
In a crushing blow for overall coaches that jumped on Anthony Milford, the top 5 HLF option limped from the field last week and may even miss the remainder of the season if surgery is required.
A tough one to swallow, but he is a certain sell. Look to the likes of Shaun Johnson this week to give you Round 16 coverage and free up a stack of cash.
Cam Murray (2RF) // $696,000 | AVG: 54 | BE: 67
A genuine keeper has made it to the popular sells list this week which is always controversial, but the numbers tell us that coaches have lost patience with Murray and his post-Origin slump.
When I look at his scores from Rounds 1 – 11 of this year – I can’t get too excited about the prospect of moving him on. A popular trade this week would be from Murray to Matterson as this will give an extra score this week and (potentially) next if Bennett chooses to manage Murray’s workload off the back of his first Origin series – however, I’m tipping Murray to bounce back and finish the year strong as the Bunnies surge into finals footy.
Note: Short-term price fluctuations (up or down) are completely irrelevant for players you are holding for the season – so don’t be put off by this dip in his stocks if you have no plans to move him on.
Verdict: HOLD.
Maika Sivo (WFB) // $497,000 | AVG: 37.2 | BE: 43
The week has come to sell the Fijian flyer, Sivo.
Sivo broke an 8-game try scoring streak against the Raiders where he come up with a sub-25 score. This sees Sivo’s average placed 5 points below his break even and it’s time to cash out.
Look to move him onto the likes of RTS if you can find the additional funds.
For more in-depth analysis on the above players and more – check out the latest episode of the NRL Fantasy Podcast below.