ByronThe boys from Outta Their League are back to give their two-cents on all the popular player movements ahead of Round 17 of the NRL Fantasy season.
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Who’s Hot
Xavier Coates (WFB) | BRONCOS // $212,000 | AVG: 16 | BE: 18
Xavier enters Round 17 as the most traded in player in NRL Fantasy.
He’s bargain basement and will serve two purposes this week for the majority of coaches. Firstly, he will free up the maximum amount of cash for those traded someone like Patrick Herbert and secondly, he fill provide a very valuable WFB number this week in a Round where most coaches are missing both Ponga and Teddy.
The trade makes sense, but I wouldn’t be expecting too much via the way of scores as he didn’t look to be a player that will be too hungry for base stats.
Tom Trbojevic (WFB) | SEA EAGLES // $753,000 | AVG: 58.8 | BE: 57
Turbo comes into this week with just under 12% ownership, but if the early numbers are any indication – this number looks set to climb significantly by the time lockout rolls around!
With the up and down form of RTS and Ponga out of action this week – again, this one makes perfect sense.
With scores of 83 and 100 in his last 5-games, if Turbo can pull-up from Origin OK – he should be on the radar of all coaches for the run-home.
Braidon Burns (WFB, CTR) | RABBITOHS // $443,000 | AVG: 40 | BE: 25
At under $450,000 and with dual position status – it’s easy to see why coaches are getting around Burns this week.
Prior to this year, Burns hasn’t been at all Fantasy relevant due to a lack of base stats – but seemingly, Bennett has got him firing as he’s yet to put together a poor score that wasn’t injury affected.
With a break even of 25, it’s time to jump on!
Scott Drinkwater (WFB, HLF) | COWBOYS // $595,000 | AVG: 57 | BE: 25
Here’s an interesting one to unpack. In his lone game for the 2019 season, Drinkwater suited up for his new club and was absolutely electric (much to the dismay of Dragons fans!)
He managed 57 NRL Fantasy points in this game on the back of a try, a try assist, 6 tackle busts and 212 run metres and this looks to be enough to gain the trust of a stack of NRL Fantasy coaches this week.
We’ve all been burnt before by jumping on a player too early, but with high praises from Billy Slater and a couple of great performances to his name over two seasons – I tend to think he will produce the goods, as well! Great trade.
Daly Cherry-Evans (WFB, HLF) | SEA EAGLES // $708,000 | AVG: 55.6 | BE: 83
DCE was on my list as a certain buy post-origin for the majority of the season, but I’ve gone cold on the idea since the emergence of Cade Cust where we’ve seen DCE average just 41 when partnering him in Round 13, 14 & 15.
We also have to consider that DCE was in in the middle of representative duties during this time, however with a break even of 83 this week – I’d be holding off a game or two to assess if DCE can get back to the form we seen over the opening 10 Rounds of the season with Cust chiming in and stealing some points here and there.
Cameron Munster (HLF) | STORM // $711,000 | AVG: 54.8 | BE: 57
Munster will go down as the player we talked up the most in the pre-season but won’t end up owning at any stage.
I really like this option for a few reasons:
- He’s playing in the in-form team of the competition
- The storm play the Titans TWICE on the run-home
- He has a great spread of stats from kick metres to tackle busts and try asssits – the ultimate Fantasy player!
I have Munster comfortably ahead of DCE as a buy this week.
Latrell Mitchell (CTR) | ROOSTERS // $558,000 | AVG: 43.6 | BE: 40
If you’re not boring like me and aren’t setting your sites on a Nikora/Bateman CTR combo for the run home, both Mitchell and Marsters look like great options this week.
Given Bateman hasn’t cracked 40 in two weeks running, plenty of coaches have been tempted into bucking the trend and going with someone with a higher ceiling and/or a lower ownership (Marsters – 6.7% ownership).
Not a whole lot needs to be said about Mitchell.
When you take out the games where he played five-eighth this season, Latrell boasts an average just under 50 and looks damaging with every touch. The return of Keary also considerably boosts his stocks.
But if you’re tempted by Mitchell, we urge you to take a look at Marsters for $70,000 cheaper as he was right alongside Mitchell as one of the best options at CTR in NRL Fantasy last year. He also has the goal kicking duties and a great ability to break tackles, so he’s worthy of the conversation in our eyes.
Adam Reynolds (HLF) | RABBITOHS // $678,000 | AVG: 53.4 | BE: 51
We completely agree with this trade-in target this week and if it wasn’t for his injury history – he’d be right up the top of the list alongside Turbo as one of the most popular buys.
He’s exactly what you want out of an NRL Fantasy HLF in that he completely dominates the general play kicking and this is what separates him from the pack. For example, Luke Brooks (who shares the kicking duties with Benji) kicked for just 284m in his last outing. In contrast, by solely owning the general play kicking – Reynolds kicked for 560m in Round 15.
Manase Fainu (HOK) | SEA EAGLES //$494,000 | AVG 39.6 | BE: 22
Under $500k and playing 80 minutes at HOK whilst Koroisau recovers from injury makes for great reading for coaches with a couple of trades tucked away.
A quick look at his stats will show you that Manase only needs 50 minutes to go 50+, so you can bank on him hitting that mark playing the full game.
Much like Tevaga last week, you would be bringing him in with the idea that you’ll need to move him on when Koroisau returns in Round 21 – however, if you’re a rare breed with more than 12 trades, then why not?
Who’s Not
Bronson Xerri | Sharks (CTR) // $495,000 | AVG: 37.7 | BE: 45
Xerri becomes one of the hottest trade-out options this week, even after coming off a solid 45 score against the Broncos (without scoring a try).
Although Xerri looks to have peaked, he remains a reliable CTR option who possesses a solid 5 game average of 42.4.
A fortnight ago I expected to sell Xerri this week to free cash and upgrade in other areas, however he has now forced me to do a DCE back-flip. As a result, Xerri’s consistent form has been rewarded with a place in the OTL Aztecs squad til the end of the season.
Connor Watson | Knights (HLF/WFB) // $632,000 | AVG: 38.5 | BE: 50
With Levi now back in the hooker position, Watson has peaked and this week presents as a perfect time to sell with a break even of 50.
Watson will be playing at least one more game at Fullback (replacing Ponga), which might have you leaning toward holding him (if needed) for another week. However, it’s important to note that Watson has played three games in the fullback position this year with a disappointing average of 19.
Overall, Watson was a solid buy for a limited shelf-life with a 5 game average of 56.2 – with gains of over $160,000 to boot!
Patrick Herbert | Warriors (CTR) // $376,000 | AVG: 30.9 | BE: 32
Herbert caught the eyes of coaches in Round 10 with a 60 point performance and the goal kicking duties. Since this performance, Herbert hasn’t recaptured that form due to persistent hamstring issues.
Herbert has only played 3 times since round 10 with an average of 23 which has rang the alarm bells of owners.
After being a late withdrawal in Round 16, and not being named again this week – he has become an obvious trade this week.
Kalyn Ponga | Knights (WFB, HLF) // $800,000 | AVG: 53.6 | BE: 70
Surprisingly, Ponga is statistically the 3rd most popular trade-out option this week.
This looks more like a panic trade, which is concerning at this stage of this season where most coaches are trying to conserve their trade activity for emergencies.
He’s likely only going to miss 2-3 games, so a premium player like Ponga shouldn’t be considered as a trade-out (much like Fifita wasn’t when he received a 3 game suspension).
Briton Nikora | Sharks (CTR, 2RF) // $567,000 | AVG: 48.3 | BE: 55
If Nikora had been in any position other than CTR, he would of been moved on by plenty of owners weeks ago.
Nikora had a barnstorming start to the season, where he developed a healthy partnership with Johnson. Within the first 6 rounds he had accumulated an average of 58 and was the cash cow of the season. However, since round 6, he hasn’t hit a 50 point score.
When Johnson returned, we expected a rise in scores – however that hasn’t eventuated with Johnson struggling for form as well.
With all this said, a 5 game average of 40.4 and his handy dual position status combine to keep him in the hold category for another week in our eyes.
Ryan Papenhuyzen | Storm (WFB) // $438,000 | AVG: 30.4 | BE: 39
‘PapenWoWzen’ bolted onto the NRL Fantasy scene in Round 9 with an amazing 69 points in 32 minutes. However, the return of Hughes demoted Papenhuyzen to the interchange where he is playing anywhere between 20-30 minutes in the middle.
He has made a tidy $226,000 profit since his eye-catching display in Round 9, but becomes a savvy trade-out option this week as he appears to have peaked.
Zac Lomax | Dragons (CTR, WFB) // $383,000 | AVG: 28.1 | BE: -2
If this injury had occured earlier in the season, I’m sure most coaches would have kept Lomax. However, during the Origin and Bye periods where coaches need as many fit players as possible – Lomax became a popular sacrifice.
Coaches who have kept the faith may be rewarded with impending cash rises with a very favourable break even (-2) on return. He was expected (at the earliest) to return in Round 17, but as he isn’t named this week, we’re hopeful he’ll suit up again in Round 18.
Coaches who are holding strong will look to utilise Lomax has a emergency player to fill any injuries/suspensions for either your WFB and/or CTR positions for the rest of the season and if you kept him through the Round 16 Bye – than you’ve got to hold him from here.
Jesse Arthars | Titans (WFB/CTR) // $375,000 | AVG: 29.3 | BE: 22
Arthars has been one of the quietest achievers in NRL Fantasy this season. Over the past 6 games he has made $163,000 and accumulated a 5 game average of 32.8.
Arthars is named in the reserves this week for the Titans, therefore is a definite trade-out option for your squad as coaches look to put the final touches on their team.
Cameron Murray | Rabbitohs (2RF) // $696,000 | AVG: 54 | BE: 69
One of the most controversial trade-out options over the past fortnight has been Cameron Murray.
A popular trade last week was a direct trade from Murray to Matterson. Coaches who resisted last week might be even more tempted this week after Matterson carved a scintillating 78 points. If Bennett decides to manage Murray’s workload off the back of Game III – that could cause further doubt for owners this week.
Either way, we think Murray will bounce back (after the Origin period) and get back to where he was before Origin to finish the season strong.