ByronThe team at Outta Their League take a look at the major player movements in NRL Fantasy ahead of Round 14.
A must-read before locking in your trades just two weeks from our next major Bye Round.
Who’s Hot
Connor Watson | Knights (WFB, HOK)
Watson hasn’t been a relevant NRL Fantasy player this season to date – but an injury to Levi has bolted him into contention for a stack of coaches this week. Watson took the opportunity with both hands scoring an impressive 83 points. This breakout performance included a try, 43 tackles and 7 tackle breaks – all in an electric 75 minutes.
With Levi out for 6-8 weeks and break even of 4, he could be a vital short-term at $518,000 with round 16 availability. The DPP status is also a big bonus!
John Bateman | (2RF, CTR)
The tough-as-nails Englishman hasn’t needed a string of games to get back to full fitness. He has come back where he started the season… in beast mode!
After an injury lay-off, Bateman has returned with back-to-back 60+ point performances and is a must-have in your squad – whether you pull the trigger now or wait til’ after Round 16.
He’s currently the most purchased player this week and it’s hard to argue against it.
Cameron Smith | Storm (HOK)
With no Origin duties and Round 16 availability, Smith looks refreshed and has shown no signs of slowing down evidenced by this 60.4 average.
A price-tag of $803,000 doesn’t normally constitute as a ‘bargain’, but for Smith – that’s a steal! A 76 point haul last week means, he comes into Round 14 with a break even of 55 and it looks like an opportune time to jump on.
What more can you say about the G.O.A.T?
Cade Cust | Sea Eagles (HLF)
Coaches who picked up Cust a month ago would’ve only expected a shelf-life of 4-6 weeks until the return of either Croker and DCE. However, Elgey surprisingly make-way for the impressive rookie and he looks like the pick for DCE’s long-term halves partner.
With a break even of -3, a sub $400,000 price tag and 3 game average of 47.7 – he looks awfully tempting.
The lack of Round 16 availability may scare a few coaches off but you can see why so many have jumped in light of Dearden’s injury.
Cameron McInnes | Dragons (HOK)
This season, McInnes has stepped up and put himself amongst the exclusive premium hooker tier – alongside Cook and Smith.
Boasting a season average of 61.9, McInnes has impressed in both his attacking and defensive duties. Along with Smith, McInnes is a premium keeper til the end, therefore it’s the perfect time to pull the trigger before his price brunches the $900,000 mark in the coming weeks.
With the exception of Fifita, he also looks like an outstanding captaincy option in Round 16.
Brian To’o | Panthers (WFB)
To’o has impressed over his last 3 appearances with the majority of his points all coming through base stats. He has a 3 game average of 41.7, and even though he has already made in excess of $100,000 profit during that time – the ship hasn’t quite sailed. With that said, you need to jump on now.
WFB can be a tricky position to fill, so with a break even of (-4) there is still plenty of points and cash to make.
Andrew Fifita | Sharks (FRF)
Fifita is one of the finest player options in NRL Fantasy. If you haven’t got him at this stage, he has to be your priority.
Priced at a discounted $727,000 – it is a no-brainer this weekend.
The hammy issues that plagued him in Round 9 seem to have resolved and he’s back to his best as a potential set-and-forget captain option.
Viliame Kikau | Panthers (2RF)
Remember this big unit? Last season he was one of NRL Fantasy’s rising stars who went from cash cow to keeper within a season. Unfortunately, he has had an ongoing battle with injuries and consistent form to kick off his 2019 campaign and he is a long way off that potential keeper tag.
Kikau was on plenty of coaches radar leading up to Round 12, but didn’t show enough to be traded in for serious coaches. However, over the weekend, it was Kikau of 2018 with a monstrous performance which resulted in an eye-catching 92 points. The impressive stat sheet read 2 tries, 1 try assist, 10 tackle breaks, and 152 running metres. How good?!
Kikau has lost $110,000 this season, but he’s set to start regaining some is this coin as of this week with a BE of 22. There’s plenty jumping on, but I’d like to see one or two more big games before he regains my trust.
Daly Cherry-Evans | Sea Eagles (HLF)
DCE was at the height of his powers before he succumbed to injury during Round 7. Before this Round, he was boasting an impressing 67 point average and was the in-form NRL Fantasy player across the competition.
DCE returned after a solid Origin performance, then backed up against the Cowboys with a solid 45 points. With a inflated break even of 88 this week, I wouldn’t be looking at DCE until after the Origin period.
Mitchell Kenny | Panthers (HOK)
It has been a whirlwind few weeks for the young Panther.
With a price of $310,000 and a mid thirties average – he is tempting plenty of coaches since his elevation to the starting lineup again this week and the Panther’s top 30 side.
He looks to have plenty of cash to make, especially with a break even this weekend of (-1). However, Egan on the bench is a concern and without the all-important Round 16 availability – I can’t go there.
Reece Robson | Dragons (HOK)
If you’re after another number for 16 and a slower burn cash cow, Robson looks a good pick-up this week. He has shown with his PPM displays over the past two games that if he can maintain 40 minutes on the park – we can expect a mid-late 30’s average.
With a break even of 0, a season average of 38 (from two performances) and Round 16 availability – you can see why plenty are bringing him in this week.
Who’s Not
Tom Dearden | Broncos (HLF)
NRL Physio has confirmed Tom Dearden will require surgery and will miss up to 10 weeks before returning to the field.
Given he now has a 0 in his rolling average and he will miss that all-important Round 16 – he is a certain sell. Take the $136,000 in cash rises and run!
Mitch Rein | Titans (HOK)
The return of Peats had an immediate impact on the scores of Mitch Rein – as expected. Rein spent just 35 minutes on the field against the Broncos and scored a season-low 26.
We highlighted Rein as a sell last week due to his break even of 50, but if you held off for one more week – he is now an urgent sell. After leaking $30k in Round 13, he looks set for some steep price reductions in the next few weeks.
Make it a priority to cash in the $190k in cash he has made and move him onto the likes of Smith, McCullough or McInnes.
Aiden Tolman | Bulldogs (FRF)
Now Round 12 is out the way, the polar bear has done his job and a three-round average of 41.0 puts him a good 10-points or so behind the premium options in his position.
And whilst this isn’t an urgent trade, I can understand people moving him on this week for an out-and-out keeper with Round 16 coverage.
If you have more urgent issues to rectify in your squad, you can certainly hold off on this trade. But if you are holding him, your long-term plans should have him earmarked as an 18th or 19th man at the business end of the season.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | Raiders (WFB) / Maika Sivo | Eels (WFB)
Here we have two outside backs that have been invaluable to date.
But, they’ve seen us through the Round 12 bye and it’s time to turn them into a keeper that covers Round 12.
Klokstad is coming off his lowest score of the season, but still has an achievable break even this week (48) due to having a 63 in his rolling average. However, a season average of 42.4 puts him a whisker behind keeper status in the position and guys like Ponga, RTS and Turbo.
Sivo is another wrung below CNK, but he too has a break even (45) that is higher than his average this week. It’s time to cash in on the $300,000 in rises and move him on. Remarkably, a trade to an out-of-form RTS will only cost you $85k this week.
Reed Mahoney | Eels (HOK)
Coaches are moving on Mahoney this week after a five round average of 44.2.
The young hooker is now starting to leak cash and dropped some $18,000 just this week.
With a break even of 55, he looks likely to drop in value again this week, and I can certainly see why coaches moving him on and looking to cash in on his $153,000 in rises.
Much like Tolman, Mahoney isn’t an urgent sell given he did hit 55 just two weeks ago in Round 12 – but those looking to put the final touches on their side have rightfully identified that he is a touch short of that keeper status.
Latrell Mitchell | Roosters (CTW)
There are a number of coaches this week that wasted little time in getting Mitchell out of their squad as soon as lockout was lifted, and I can’t really find the justification to talk them out of it.
Outside of the fact that he is right in the middle of the representative period – he simply isn’t putting up the numbers. He’s had to cover the five-eighth position on multiple occasions this year and this has has significantly impacted his output. With a three-game average of 30 and a break even in the 70s, it isn’t looking good for the 36,000 plus Mitchell owners.
I feel the CTR position is one that we don’t have to get too creative with this year with the availability of Bateman and Nikora, and I’m guessing a lot of the Mitchell sells this week will be from coaches getting Bateman back in their team. If this is the case if your team – lock it in.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | Warriors (WFB)
A number of coaches have wielded the axe on Tuivasa-Sheck this week and this is one that I’m really struggling to get behind.
Whilst he’s undoubtedly in a NRL Fantasy form slump, RTS will be an invaluable number in Round 16 as he lines up against a Knights side with no Ponga, Klemmer and (potentially) Pearce.
Given you’ve held him this long and rode out the low score scores over the past fortnight – you’ll kick yourself if you sell him at his current value and he bounces back to the form we seen over the first 5 weeks of the season.
Despite failing to crack the 30 mark over the past two weeks, the reigning Dally M player of the year is still averaging 47.3 for the season in a notoriously inconsistent position – and this is well and truly in the keeper range.
We’ve got RTS as a definite HOLD for current owners and a great pickup on the eve of the next Bye Round.
Kalyn Ponga (WFB, HLF)
After failing to back up from Origin, there are a significant number of sells this week for the most owned player in NRL Fantasy.
Given the very limited number of premium guns in the WFB position and his amazing output to date – this is another trade I’d be avoiding at all costs.
With a standalone origin scheduled for Game II, most origin stars will only miss one (or two) more games for the season. And if they’re someone that you want back in your team by head to head finals – it simply isn’t worth burning through your trades getting them out and then back in to your team.
The same goes for Cook and Murray who have also found themselves on the chopping block for a number of coaches so far this week. Both of these guys are near enough must-haves and certain top 17 prospects. Unless you’re absolutely flushed for trades and have planned to get a full team on the park for Round 16, I’d be looking to carry these guys, too.