ByronWhat we learned in 2018
A major issue for the Storm in 2018 was their lack of continuity in their number 7.
In fact, the Storm used four different halfbacks throughout the season after Cooper Cronk 2.0, Brodie Croft failed to find his rhythm as a regular first grader in the early rounds. Despite this, in true Melbourne Storm style, the undeniably professional outfit still managed to make an impressive eighth grand final appearance.
Some notable stats to come out of their 2018 campaign included the disappointing post contact metres gain (per game) with no Storm player making the top 10. A notable admission from this list was Jesse Bromwich who suffered another disappointing season (36 avg) after many NRL Fantasy coaches were counting on a bounce-back to form early on in the year. A second somewhat alarming statistic was the defensive vulnerability of the left flank that conceded 21 tries by seasons end. However, to the delight of Storm fans, mistakes were kept to a minimum and an average completion rate of 76% was once again a cornerstone to the club’s success.
For Outta Their League, the key takeaways with NRL Fantasy implications were:
- Despite Damien Cook’s rise to NRL Fantasy greatness, rule number 1 is as relevant as ever with Smith hitting 59.7pts per game, seemingly without breaking a sweat
- Jesse Bromwich has some work to do before he returns to premium FRF status and will need to show some form in the early rounds of 2019 to be back on the radar of NRL Fantasy coaches searching for a cut price keeper in the FRF position
- Munster is a still dangerous at 6 with an average of 44.8pts per game and he still has room to improve his NRL Fantasy output with increased responsibility in the absence of Billy Slater – where historically he has scored exceptionally well!
What we expect in 2019
With an underwhelming grand final performance in the rear view mirror and the daunting concept of life after Billy ahead, where have you placed Melbourne Storm in 2019?
Slater’s presence in the attacking structures and those sweeping backline movements will be sorely missed, however its in defence where his talk and positional play was unmatched throughout his career and will be impossible to replace.
The departure of Glasby (Knights) and the retirement of Hoffman will also be felt, however the Storm have showed time and time again that young willing forwards (which they have in spades) stand to benefit most from the Melbourne Storm system which consistently produces some of the games most effective, no-fuss forwards.
Round 1 sees the Storm take on the Broncos at AAMI Park which will be a great opportunity for the Storm to answer any potential doubts heading into this new era with just 1 of the “big 3” now remaining.
Will the half back position continue to be rotated or will Bellyache select and stick with Croft in 2019? Another position which is still up for grabs, accordingly to Bellamy, is the fullback position. The position is a two-horse race between Drinkwater and Hughes with Bellamy keeping everyone guessing in terms of who will get the nod from Round 1.
The most consistent team over the past decade, the Storm have shown multiple times to write them off at your peril, however this year could arguably be their most difficult season under the Bellamy reign.
Liam: With Bellamy at the helm, and the consistency of the team of the past decade, I can’t see anything other than another top four finish – 3rd.
Byron: They’ll be there in September and they’ll get there through a high completion rate and their usual first-class
NRL Fantasy Buys: Guns, Smokies and Cash Cows
Guns
Cameron Smith (HOK), $894,000
What can you say about the player that fans, pundits and players refer to as the G.O.A.T?
Smith ranked 3rd in average points per game for the 2018 season, and was the 4th most popular player in NRL Fantasy (33% ownership).
Despite being built like an accountant, he finished the year in 4th for effective tackles, and 1st for goals kicked. He also retired from representative duties last season to assist in prolonging his NRL career, and with his amazing injury record to boot, it’s hard to go against rule number 1 and kick-off your year without Smith.
Projected to hit 400 NRL games during this upcoming season, the future immortal will be primed for another big year and is as safe as they come for a set and forget captain choice.
A potential must-have again in 2019. What’s new?
Cameron Munster (HLF), $667,000
After cementing his place in the Maroons and Green and Gold last season, Munster was arguably the Storms best and looked likely with just about every touch. Munster averaged 44.8 NRL Fantasy points in 2018 and topped the club for both try assists (15) and line break assists. Whilst Munster had a hand in many of the Storm’s tries throughout the year, he did struggle scoring them for himself with just 4 for the year much to the frustration of owners.
With his current trajectory, Munster looks poised to move further toward the title of the best 6 in the NRL & will be called upon for a leadership role in the absence of Billy the kid in 2019. Will this spell more points for Cameron Munster? History tells us it will and he may be a valuable POD from for those willing to take the risk.
In fact, Munster boasts a very tempting average of 64.7 in the absence of Billy Slater.
Juicy POD, anyone?
Felise Kaufusi (2RF), $659,000
After his 2017 breakout NRL season, the hard running backrower showed second season syndrome is purely a myth and his continued run of form translated in a solid 45 pt average.
In 21 appearances in 2018, Kaufusi chalked up 6 line-breaks, 22 offloads and made an average of 34 tackles a game. Kaufusi’s form was recognised with a call-up to the Maroons squad in what promises to be the beginning of a long representative career.
Do we think Kaufusi is a buy?
Felise runs a great line and as a result, he’s no stranger to a tackle bust or line break as he’s causing havoc for opposing 2RFs and CTWs. There will be games throughout the 2019 season where the big fella will crash over for a try or two and notch up a massive score, likely off a short ball from Brodie Croft.
However, Kaufusi is awkwardly priced given he’s a rung below the premium keepers in the position in Jurbo, Lolo, Arrow who consistently put up these the big numbers.
For this reason, if you’re searching for a second rower around this price point we’d find the extra cash to go up to the likes of Kikau who has greater upside and more potential to push into the top echelon of players in the position.
Smokies
Brodie Croft (HLF), $561,000
Former player of the year for the Easts Tigers and promising young talent, Brodie Croft was seen as the natural replacement for Cronk for the 2018 season. However, due to the inability to string together consistent performances, he was dropped back to the ISP on two occasions.
During this difficult period Croft showed grit, maturity and determination to return as first-choice half-back from round 23 and throughout the final series.
Croft’s up and down season resulted in a 39.4 point average for the season on the whole, however he managed to put together a promising average to the tune of 56.8pts in his last four games of the regular season which was much more indicative of the scores many NRL Fantasy coaches were hopeful of after picking him up for round 1.
If Croft can begin 2019 like he ended last season, he is set to make some serious cash and could even become a cut-price keeper or handy 18th man by seasons end.
Michael Morgan ($450,000) will be a popular pick amongst coaches searching for value in the halves as he expected to see more ball in light of Thurston’s retirement. However, if you have the funds available and want to go against the crowd, we can certainly see the attraction of Croft.
…or better yet, why not grab both?
Scott Drinkwater (HLF, WFB), $583,000
According to Cameron Smith, Drinkwater has impressed him the most during the pre-season and he’s the frontrunner to replace Slater. Drinkwater spent the last two seasons developing his game with the NYC and feeder teams playing both in the fullback and five-eighth position. He made his NRL debut (and only appearance) last season, which included a try and an impressive 58 point haul in NRL Fantasy. Despite this performance, there is plenty of risk for NRL Fantasy coaches due to his hefty starting price and small sample size in order to accurately appraise his NRL Fantasy stocks.
Update 9/3: Scott Drinkwater has torn his pec in the last game of the preseason and is set to be sidelined for an extended period of time, reopening the door for his teammate: Jahrome Hughes.
Jahrome Hughes (Fullback), $502,000
Hughes, who has played a mix of fullback and five-eighth over the past two seasons, is a dynamic type who looks ready to take his development to the next level in 2019.
During the 2018 season, Hughes played 11 games and averaged 35.8 NRL Fantasy points.
The likely beneficiary of Drinkwater’s injury, Hughes looks set to walk into the fullback position in 2019 and fill the shoes of Storm legend, Billy Slater.
…but is he a buy?
Awkwardly priced at $502,000, NRL Fantasy coaches will be looking at his average of close to 40 when playing at the back in 2018 and deciding on whether this can be improved upon with sole ownership of the position and back to back appearances in the 1.
One to watch, as if he is able to score 40 or more points a game he is currently priced at a slight discount and could offer some value for NRL Fantasy coaches searching for a handy mid-ranger at WFB.
Cash Cows
Joe Stimson (2RF), $416,000
With the retirement of Hoffman, we expect to see the former captain of the Storm NYC team promoted to an 80 minute starter in the vacant back row position.
After making his Storm debut in 2017, he has slowly cemented his place as a regular member of the top squad through his consistent performances.
Last season, he chalked up 24 appearances for a modest 30.7 average. However, with consistent 80 minute performances, Stimson has the potential to significantly shift this number north and make a mountain of cash in the process.
Here’s why…
Stimson was called upon for 80 minutes in on 8 occasions last year and boasted a 40.75 point average across these performances.
If Stimson is able to replicate this in 2019, he is set to make some $200,000!
Tui Kamikamica (2RF), $228,000
Whilst Kamikamica only managed to take the field on five occasions last year, what has us excited about a potential increase in game time for the young FRF (listed as 2RF in NRL Fantasy) is his points per minute statistic of 0.78.
The departure of Glasby could spell more minutes for Tui, and we know that he makes them count!
Even with just 30 to 35 minutes in the Storm rotation in 2019, Kamikamica stands to increase his stocks to the high $300,000s in the early rounds.
Evidence to this is his trial form against the warriors where he managed 47 NRL Fantasy points in his stint in the front row. One to watch and one that’s not on a lot of coaches radar currently.
Predicted Round 1 Line-up
- Jahrome Hughes
- Josh Addo-Carr
- Will Chambers
- Curtis Scott
- Suli Vunivalu
- Cameron Munster
- Brodie Croft
- Jesse Bromwich
- Cameron Smith
- Nelson Asofa-Solomona
- Felise Kaufusi
- Joe Stimson
- Dale Finucane
- Brandon Smith
- Kenny Bromwich
- Tui Kamikamica
- Christian Welch