ByronWith pre-season well and truly underway, a familiar time where we’re permanently attached to the couch from the Thursday night kick-off to the Sunday night wrap-up, where we increase our risk of developing stress-related cardiac issues and assume the role of part-time physiotherapists, “that’s a just soft tissue strain – they better not take him off!”, is merely a couple of months away.
We’re here to help you gain an edge in your head to head competitions and/or your overall point pursuits in the great game, NRL Fantasy.
This series of articles and the accompanying podcasts will dissect and analyse every team in the NRL Telstra Premiership from a NRL Fantasy perspective, and provide ‘to the point’ responses to the following:
- What we learned in 2018
- What we expect in 2019
- NRL Fantasy Buys: Guns, smokeys and cash cows!
- Predicted round 1 lineup
NRL Fantasy Team Analysis – Sydney Roosters
What we learned in 2018
With more stars in their squad than in the nights sky, the success of the Sydney Roosters in 2018 didn’t come as too much of a surprise to NRL fans.
With the tactical prowess of Trent Robinson at the helm and the acquisition of James Tedesco and Cooper Cronk, the only real question was how long would it take for these key players to form their combinations?
The Roosters opened their campaign with a surprise loss to the Tigers and went on to win just 3 of their first 6 games. Despite this, it was clear the new-look spine were starting to click and they weren’t far off hitting top gear. From this point onward, we seen the Roosters do just that and win all bar six games throughout the remainder of the regular season, including a ‘get-square’ with the Tigers in round 13.
High on confidence, the Sydney Roosters then went to another level and were untouchable in season decider in what was the icing on the cake of a sensational year of footy.
The attacking structures in place at the Roosters seen a number of stand-out NRL Fantasy players come into the spotlight in the CTW and WFB positions.
Latrell Mitchell (44.7) and the Parramatta Eels bound Blake Ferguson (43.6) were major beneficiaries becoming the number 1 and number 2 NRL Fantasy CTWs respectively.
But the dominance of the Roosters outside backs didn’t stop there – James Tedesco (53.1) once again did what he does best and tackle busted his way to becoming the best NRL Fantasy WFB by season end by edging out Kalyn Ponga (52.4) and Tom Trbojevic (48.9).
Ultimately, we learned the aforementioned backs were essential for success – particularly in a lot of head to head grand finals in Round 25 where Mitchell (105) and Tedesco (106) cracked triple figures, and Ferguson (77) and Manu (63) racked up solid scores at the expense of a lackluster Parramatta Eels.
What we expect in 2019
History tells us that going back-to-back in the NRL Telstra Premiership is an extremely difficult task. It’s been 25 years since a red-hot Brisbane side did it in 92’ & 93’.
…but can you see 2019 going any other way?
Sure, the departure of Napa (Bulldogs) and Ferguson (Eels) will be felt, but the Roosters have once again recruited outstandingly with NRL Fantasy legend, Angus Crichton (Souths), England international and multiple Super League grand final winner, Ryan Hall (Leeds) and the ever-reliable, Brett Morris (Bulldogs) joining the ranks.
We’re predicting another big year for the Sydney Roosters in 2019 and expect their new star recruit in the 2RF and their electric CTW & WFB’s to once again feature as must-haves in the upcoming NRL Fantasy season.
Liam: There is just too much talent in their top 17 & I can’t see anyone knocking them off. They’ll go back-to-back.
Byron: Although we’re a long, long way from September 2019 and anything can happen – I have to agree. I have them pencilled in for the minor premiership and grand final winners, and I think they’ll do it comfortably!
NRL Fantasy Buys: Guns, Dark Horses and Cash Cows
Guns
For the purpose of NRL Fantasy Team Review articles, the “guns” refer to our picks for the must-have players in your scoring 17 for head to head finals or at any stage through the season in your pursuit for overall points glory.
Latrell Mitchell (CTW), $669,000
In 2018, we all witnessed the rise of Latrell Mitchell to elite NRL Fantasy status.
And the best part? He’s still improving.
Latrell was a key strike weapon for the Roosters all season. Whether he was finishing off a slick backline movement, running over the top of his opposing centre or adding the extras from the the sideline, he made it look easy and consistently rewarded savvy NRL Fantasy coaches with the best overall average score for the CTW position (44.7).
With runs on the board for the 2018 season to the tune of 17 tries, 90 goals, 6 try assists, 18 line breaks and 118 tackle breaks, Mitchell is the premier, set-and-forget CTW selection for 2019 and we’re backing him to go to another level.
James Tedesco (WFB), $795,000
There isn’t a lot that needs to be said on everyone’s favourite NRL Fantasy fullback.
Teddy has held “must-have” status in the WFB position for a number years throughout his tenure with the West Tigers and there were no surprises in his debut season with the Sydney Roosters where we seen him once again dominant the NRL Fantasy rankings for the WFB position (51.6).
A quick look at his numbers and you’ll see why the Outta Their League team feel naked without Tedesco in their back 3 from round 1 every year – despite his starting price.
Tedesco notched up a staggering 158 tackle breaks in 2018, alongside 9 tries, 15 try assists, 15 line breaks and average running metres per game of 187.6 with some of the best kick-returns in the competition.
With another pre-season with the new club under his belt, we’re tipping Tedesco’s NRL Fantasy scores to grow again in 2019 by hitting specialist finishers in Ryan Hall, Brett Morris and Daniel Tupou on the end of more sweeping backline movements as their combinations continue to improve. A scary thought for rival NRL clubs, indeed!
Angus Crichton (2RF), $818,000
There are few greater sights in the game of Fantasy NRL as an Angus Crichton owner than witnessing the gun 2RF terrorise a right edge with a big left-arm fend, simultaneously racking up more (almost effortless) tackle busts than you can poke a stick at.
And if he’s not putting up big NRL Fantasy numbers by swatting away would-be defenders, he’s adding to an impressive line break tally running his trademark outside-in lines.
Alike Tedesco, the man is simply made for Fantasy NRL and the numbers back it up.
Ranked 4th for overall average points for a 2RF in 2018 (54.6), Angus was not only a reliable selection for NRL Fantasy coaches with a season-low score of 35 in round 9, but a handy x-factor with a score of 94 in the round following. This combination of impressive base stats (34 pts from tackles & 13 pts for run metres per game) with attacking prowess (9.93 pts per game from tackle breaks) is what makes Angus Crichton one of greats of NRL Fantasy.
Some NRL Fantasy coaches will balk at parting ways with a large portion of their scarce salary cap from Round 1 to acquire Crichton given he is joining a new club and a possible “settling-in” period may result in some quieter games and an early price drop.
With that said, are you willing to risk being a non-owner in round 1 when he faces the old firm at the SCG for a potential discount? Or will you capitalise on a potential low ownership and ride every tackle busting charge? Our advice? Go with the latter.
Smokeys
Victor Radley (2RF), $503,000
“Beers, beers and more beers!”
…and the boy from Bronte earned every one of them!
The fan favourite had a breakout season in 2018 on the back of consistent stand-out performances and a complete lack of self preservation. Just ask the 111kg Marty Taupau who was just one of a long list of recipients of a Radley bell-ringer throughout the year.
It was this toughness that earned Radley a spot in the emerging blues side under Roosters great, Freddy Fitler.
Despite spending much of the year from the bench as the Roosters first choice utililty, Radley’s toughnesss and work rate did translate into some solid Fantasy scores in 2018. With a season average of 33.9, Radley does have some work to do to be positioned amongst the upper echelon of NRL Fantasy 2RF’s, but will 2019 be his year?
NRL.com has Radley predicted to line up wearing the 13 in round 1 of 2019 and if this is the case, Radley will come under consideration for many NRL Fantasy teams.
Here’s why…
In earning his 33.9 average, Radley played an average of 43.88 mins per game which gives him an impressive output of 1.29 points per minute and positions him alongside some of the best workhorses in the 2RF position.
A starting role in 2019 and minutes around the 60-70 mark would see Radley set to climb the ranks of the 2RF position and make some serious cash along the way.
Ryan Hall (CTW), $446,000
The England and Rhinos winger has suffered an ACL injury and won’t be lining up in round 1 as a result.
At 32 years of age and untested in the NRL, Hall will also have to work his way into the star-studded Roosters backline with Tupou and Morris set to secure wing spots from the outset.
Nonetheless, he’s made our list and if his international and Super League prowess is anything to go by, you simply can’t afford to ignore the talented Englishman should he get a chance to take the field for a prolonged period at any stage.
Hall is a big body and certainly knows his way to the try line. The English powerhouse managed 9 tries & 78 tackle busts for the Rhinos in 2018.
Will he be up there with the likes of Burgess and Graham as some of the most successful Super League imports for the Sydney Roosters?
It’s a wait and see from us.
Cash Cows
Due to the calibre of the Sydney Roosters roster, we’re certainly limited in terms of genuine cash cows (at least from Round 1).
Instead, we look to promising young forwards that may work there way into the team mid-year as origin and impending injuries come into the frame. State of Origin certainties in Angus Crichton and Boyd Cordner are the most likely to create these opportunities for the extended squad as they vacate the starting 2RF positions during their representative duties.
Additionally, there’ll be no surprises at Outta Their League if emerging blues squad member, Victor Radley forces his way onto the bench for the sky blue and consolidates the impact player role formally occupied by Tyrone Peachey. If this were to eventuate, there should be a viable opportunity for at least one of the below listed young forwards to play extended minutes and generate that all-important cash for NRL Fantasy Coaches.
Nat Butcher (2RF) – $357,000
I know what you’re thinking, Nat Butcher isn’t your typical cash cow.
He’s been on the radar of NRL Fantasy coaches in the preseason for three seasons now and made 13 appearances in the NRL in 2018. Despite junior representative honours and captaining the Sydney Roosters Holden Cup team to premiership honours in 2016, the highly touted youngster hasn’t quite secured the minutes in previous seasons to become NRL Fantasy relevant.
Finishing the 2018 NRL Fantasy season at $377,000, increased minutes this upcoming season could see Butcher evolve into a mid-range cash cow offering valuable cover over the origin period.
But, is he worth the risk given his price tag?
Let’s take a look at the numbers for 2018.
Appearances: 13
Average Minutes: 36.9
Average NRl Fantasy Points: 24.9
Points Per Minute: 0.68
The above breakdown also includes three 80 minute performances in rounds 13 (41 pts), 16 (45) and 18 (28) with an average of 38 points across these games.
Butcher’s solid work ethic was reflected in rounds 13 and 16 with the bulk of his points coming from tackles (39 & 40 respectively), however the concern for many NRL Fantasy coaches will be the lack of attacking stats.
Across all three of Butcher’s 80-minute performances, the young backrower managed just 3 offloads and 3 tackle busts, making him a very different prospect to the likes of Viliame Kikau. However, if Butcher is given an opportunity for more 80-minute performances in 2019, he may just tackle his way to a 40-point average and push his price tag up toward the $600,000 mark.
Poasa Faamausili (FRF), $274,000
New Zealand born, Poasa Faamausili is one NRL Fantasy prospect that will be eagerly awaiting another opportunity to showcase his powerful running game should the opportunity arise to join the FRF rotation again in 2019.
Faamausili made the most of his lone appearance (and debut) in 2018 by producing 27 NRL Fantasy points in just 18 minutes. Poasa’s brief, yet impressive performance included a line break, 4 tackle busts and a try on his way to an attractive 1.33 points per minute (the highest of any player for 2018).
Whilst it may be unrealistic to expect more points by the way of line breaks and tries, ala Ryan James, Poasa’s strong running game and ability to bust tackles is enough to earn a spot in this list.
The question isn’t ability, but will he get enough games to justify the trade?
Sitili Tupouniua (2RF), $228,000
Another young gun to emerge from the Sydney Roosters Holden Cup premiership winning team in 2016, Sitili also got his first opportunity in the NRL squad last season.
With just 13 minutes on the field in his debut game, it would be unjust to judge his NRL Fantasy potential on this performance alone where managed a score of (-1) due to two missed tackles and an error within his short stint on an edge.
Despite the unflattering debut by NRL Fantasy standards, Sitili’s form the Wyong Roos has held him in high regard at the club. In 15 appearances for the Roos in 2018, the young 2RF notched up 5 tries, 10 line breaks and 15 offloads and made an average of 26.27 tackles per game. If Sitili was able to transfer this level of output to the NRL, this would see him average in the low to mid 40s and he’d become a viable cash cow option amongst NRL Fantasy coaches.
Alike Faamausili, game time is the concern given the calibre of the forward pack ahead of him. It’s unlikely Sitili will string enough games together to justify the trade, unless injuries and/or representative duties pave the path to more regular appearances.
Predicted Round 1 Lineup
- James Tedesco
- Daniel Tupou
- Joseph Manu
- Latrell Mitchell
- Brett Morris
- Luke Keary
- Cooper Cronk
- Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
- Jake Friend
- Siosiua Taukeiaho
- Boyd Cordner
- Angus Crichton
- Isaac Liu
- Victor Radley
- Lindsay Collins
- Zane Tetevano
- Mitchell Aubusson